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Abstract
The hydro-meteorological data on the Sudd (one of Africa’s largest wetlands) is very scanty. This is due to the physical and political situation of this area of Sudan. The Sudd Swamp area is being and will be affected by pressures from global climate change which represented in annual-mean air temperature and annual change in precipitation.
MAGICC/SCENGEN (Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse-gas Induced Climate Change/SCENario GENerator) software has been used to calculate the future annual-mean air temperature ( , mean sea level implications of emissions scenarios for greenhouse gases and change in the annual precipitation (%P) for Sudd Swamp area. In this study the following emissions scenarios have been used in MAGICC/SCENGEN climate model: B2 and A1B for two cases, the first case with all Global Circulation Models and the second case with Global Circulation Models for Nile Basin (GISS and GFDL).
Year 1995 has been chosen to be the baseline year according to the availability of the hydrological data for this year (P, Qin, Qout, ET) to predict the future changes in the Sudd Swamp temperature and annual precipitation for the following years:
• From year 2000 to year 2010 for the following years ( 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004 , 2005, 2006 , 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010)
• From year 2000 to year 2100 for the following years (2000, 2010, 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050, 2060, 2070, 2080, 2090, 2100).
Remote sensing techniques and GIS software were applied using ERDAS IMAGINE software and ArcGIS Spatial Analyst software, in order to classify and analyze the images of the area of Sudd Swamp for the years 1995- 1999- 2002-2006. This was done to calculate the change in the Sudd Swamp area due to the change of temperature and precipitation for the chosen years.
A hydrological model is used to calculate the depth of water in the Sudd Swamp in order to classify the type of wetland and it was found to be a Deep Marsh.