الفهرس 
المقدمةيوجد فقط 14 صفحة متاحة للعرض العام
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المستخلص
Summary Introduction
Egypt is one of the developing countries which attempts to use the modern technological means to achieve the economic and social development in general and the agricultural development in particular so as to cope with the large increase in the number of population and to address the food problem which is considered as the most important problem which the Egyptian economy suffers from where there is a gap between the production and consumption of agricultural commodity especially the food crops (Cereals, Vegetables, Fruits & Legumes). This results in an increase of their imports which represent a great pressure on the national economy. The Production Activity in the Agriculture Sector, is characterized by certain characteristics which differs from other economic activities such as length and seasonally of production period and that production depends on the climatic conditions and on natural factors.
The Study Problem is the presence of a large food gap resulted from a reduction the area of agricultural lands which can be cultivated at the time the national economy suffers from a (Population Explosion). There is no doubt that achieving an equilibrium between the cultivated produced and consumed food plants in Egypt, needs a detailed study to identify the solutions and possible solutions to correct and direct the path of agricultural production and to guide the consumption to achieve the
food safety.
Hence, this Research aims at studying both of the changes and fluctuations of both the scientific and general & seasonal quantities concerning the important agricultural crops in Arab Republic of Egypt to
determine the best marketing times to face all the economic problems resulted from the price and quantity fluctuation in the markets.
This Study was divided into an Introduction and four main sections in addition to a in Arab and English Language where the introduction included: Research Problem, Research Objectives, Research Methods & Tools; Sources of Information; Research and Study Plan. (Section One) covers the Theoretical frame of main concepts through (3) Divisions. The First Division covers the theoretical frame of Time-Series. The Second Division covered the theoretical frame for presenting the agricultural products. The Third Division covers the theoretical fram
eof demand for agricultural products. (Section Two): covers the Analysis of Time-Series of the variables of some main agricultural products. (Section Three): Covers the Analysis of Time-Series for demand for the main agricultural products, through two main chapters. (Chapter One) covers analysis of consumption demand for some agricultural products under the study through two divisions. The first division estimates the general time direction for the development of agricultural products consumption under the study. Whereas, the second division included an estimation of the individual consumption functions for some agricultural products. But Chapter Two include the Analysis of Time-Series for the quantities and prices of some main agricultural products.
(Section Four) covers estimating the demand and supply functions for some main agricultural products through two main chapters. The First Chapter included analysis of the functional relationship between the time-series for supply of some main agricultural products. Whereas, Chapter Two covers the analysis of time-series for the demand for some main agricultural products.
First•
Through the study of Time-Series for the supply variables of some main
agricultural products in Arab Republic of Egypt during the Period (1990
— 2003) under the study; it became clear from the economic analysis of
the supply variables of Wheat products, that 59% only of the changes
which occurs in the Total Area Cultivated with Wheat Crop. And that
83% of the changes occurring in the Faddan production of the crop; and
that 91% of the changes occurring in the Total Production of the Crops;
and 94% of the changes occurring in the production costs; and 95% of the
changes occurring in it’s agricultural prices; and 34% only of the changes
occurring in the food profitability which is due to the factors which is reflected by the time factor. As for the remaining percentage for each variable, they refer to other factors which are not registered in the model. Ass for the Rice Crop, 60% of the changes which occur in the area cultivated with the summer rice crop. Is due to the factors reflected by the time factor. Whereas the changes occurring in the area cultivated with the Nile rice crop which are due to the factors reflected by the time factor which is estimated by approximately 0.0005% only. Also, 99% of the changes occurring in the food production of the summer rice crop, are due to the factors reflected by the time factor. While 32% only of the changes occurring in the food production for the Nile Rice which refer to the factors to the factors reflected by the time factor. And that 85% of the changing occurring in the Total Production of the Summer Rice which refers to the factors which are reflected by the time factor. Whereas
0.03% only of the changes occurring in the Total Production of the Nile Rice Crop which is due to the factors which are reflected by the time factor. Also, 59% of the changes occurring in the prices of the Rice crop in Arab Republic of Egypt; and that 29% of the changes occurring in the food profitability for the crop, refer to the factors reflected by the time
factor and that the remaining percentage which equals 71 % refers to other factors not recorded in the model.