الفهرس 
مقدمة
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Abstract
The Eeconomic-Refonn Policy in the Egyptian Agricultural Sector had included several trends, the most important, is the change of the planning style, from central
planning depending on the influance of the government to a planning depending on expanding the apportunity of working under the market mechanism and limitting the role
of government on acheaving the Agricultural development with a change of the philosofY
of managing the resources of the National AgriculturalEconomy. We can say that the
problem of the study, especially in the fonn of the Eeconomic Refonn policy, is that the
Egyptian Agricultural Sector had taken several proceedures and changes that were
suitable for its liberlization, these must had been an influence on the Agricultural
production that differes as these changes. Thus, the problem of this study is aknowldge
these changes and the positive an negative effects of it, and its role in forming the
skeleton and production of the main crops in Egypt and its effects an adjusting with the
local and foreign markets.
This study aims to measure the effect of acheving the Eeconomic refonn policy on
the production of the main crops in Egypt, on both the eeconomical and fisical
coefficients of the important studied crops, through studing the acheaved improvements
in the essential changes of the two periods of studu and with using he suitable statistical
and analytical methods. Also, the study aimed to aknowldge the effect of the Eeconomic
Reform Policy an the eeconomic effeciency of the studied crops through studing the
structural combination of the items of the production costs, and estimating the
production cost functions, productivity functions and functions of responce the oftotal
production of the most important crops in the two periods of study. The study had
depended on the two methods, (the meduction method and the induction method) both
together, and the research study depended on using the methods ofthe descriptive and
quantative analysis of the data and the explenation of the Eeconomic-Relations between
the variables by the moathematical methods. The study depended on the specific dated
for its theoritical, previous, frame and this was from sev,eralsources of which, editionals,
books and Arabic and English specialized papers. Also studies serculations and
publications that had a strong relation of the subject of the study essiod by a scietific
authoroties and research centres. While the study essentially depended on having the
buplished and unbuplished matters related to its analytical fonn on documentations,
publications of the governmental and nongovernmental authorities.
The study contains of four essential research chapters, The first chapter delt with
the frame of the eeconomic reform in Egypt and it separated three portions, the first delt
with the study of main features of the eeconomic text review reform in Egypt through
studing the fases of the eeconomic changes and the Egyptian economy before the
Eeeonomic Reform, then the motives of the eeconomic reform and the structural
adjustment programmes then studing the aims, methods of the eeconomic reform policy.
The second partition delt with studing the main features of the Eeeonomic Reform in the
sphere of agriculture, through studying the declarations and programs and the crop
structure in the frame of the Eeeonomic Reform Policy and the thired partition deals with
the text review of the previous studies related to the study.
The second chapter delt with trended changes of the productive limitations of the
most important crops, this chapter is separated into three partions, the first delt with the
studying of the trendal changes of the plisical limitations of the main crops production,
and from which, it is clear that in the first period of the study before the application of
the eeconomic reform the average of the cultivated area of the wheat, rice, maize, bean,
cotton and sugarcane, were 1272, 982, 1383, 268, 1087 and 252 thousand feddans
sequantly. The feddan productivity average were 10 Ardab, 2.4 Ton, 14 ardab, 1 Ton,
6.9 Kentar and 36 ton for the previous crops in sequent, and the average of the total
costs were 226,273,247,215,411 and 586 pounds sequantly. Also, the farm price was
about 127, ISO, 22.4, 44, 71.2 and 22.6 pound per unit of the previous crops sequantly
while the feddan net revenue were about 108, ISO, lIS, 85, 136 and 233 pound
sequantly. As for the second period of the study after applying the eeconomic reform
policy and the data of the study declares that the cultivated area was about 1879, 1135,
1598, 228, 296, 889 and 273 thousand feddan and the average of the productivity of the
feddan was about 14.7 ardab, 3 ton, 18.2 ardab, 1.1 ton, 6.2 kentar and 43 ton while the
average of the total costs was about 604, 710, 720,572,912 and 1458 pound and the
average of the form price where about 433,400, 56, 124, 265 and 58 pound per unit for
the previous crops sequantly. Also, the average of net feddan revenue was about 799,
633, 556,473,303 and 986 pound sequantly. By studying the time trends and estimating
the time trend functions of the cultivated area of the important crops before applying the
eeconomic reform policy, it is clear that the areas cultivated with wheat, rice, maize,
bean, .cotton and sugar cane had a decliningtrends with an annual decrease, were about
19.3, 18, 4.6, 16.1 and 1.5 thousand feddan sequantly; while it declairs that the area of
rice crop was increasing by about 20.6 thousandfeddan annually.But after applying the
eeconomic reform policy it occures that, the cultivated area with the crops, wheat rice,
maize and sugar cane had an increasing trend, annualy increase by 117.2, 53.2,35.3 and
2 thousand feddan sequantly (this was statistically significant),while the bean and cotton
cultivated areas had a declining trend decreasing annually by about 2,47.5 thousand
feddan. The study’s results declaires that each of the per feddan productivity of the rice,
maize, cotton and sugar can had an increased trend before applying the eeconomic
reform, and the annual increase rate about 0.35, 0.2%, 1.9”10and 0.8% of the annual
average of the per feddan productivity of the formal crops sequantly. The annual
decrease of the wheat and bean was 1.9”10 and 0.31% sequantly during the same period.
As after applying the eeconomic reform policy, the results of the trend for these per
feddan productivity for the wheat, rice, maize, cotton and sugarcane, that there is an
increasing trend during this period, and it was estimated statistically significant, with
about 4.1%, 4.5%,4.6%,0.5% and 2.7% sequantly. As for the total production of rice, cotton and sugarcane, it had an increasing trend during the first period before the reform
with an annual rate about 3.0%, 0.3% and 0.4% from the annual average of the total
production for the same crops sequantly, and the decreasing rates for wheat, maize and
bean was about 3.3%, 0.7%, 2.7% sequantly before the reform. But after applying the
eeconomic reform policy, it occures that the total production of wheat, rice, maize and
sugarcane had an increased trend and statistically significant,the annual rate of increase
was estimated by 9.20,9.1%,6.7% and 4.2%. As for the self contention rate, the study
declaires that the self content percentage as an average for the first period before the
reforme reached about 18.7%, 69%, 110010,84% and 55% for the wheat, maize, rice,
bean., and sugarcane sequantly, while after applying the reform policy it reached about
40%, 74%, 108%,90% and 62% for the same crops as previously mentioned sequantly.
The studydeclaires that decrease the per-capita average share from wheat from 187 Kg.
annually as an average before the reform to about 173.5% annually as an average after
the reform, while the per-capita average decreased from the rice, bean.,and sugar from
about 95.6%, 6.1% and 31.4 kg annually as an average for the first period before the
reform to about 83.3,5.3 and 27.3 Kg annuallyas an average for the second period after
the reform sequantly while the average of per-capita share of rice increased from 33.2%
Kg annually to about 36 Kg annually. As for the second partition of the second chapter,
it delt with the study of the trend changes of the eeconomic limitations to produce the
main crops through a studying the changes, in the farm prices, the net per feddan
revenue, of the substitute circulations, the surplus value and the revenue on the invested
pound for the inmportant main crops in the study. from the results, it occures that the
farm rices for wheat, rice, bean, cotton and sugarcan had an increasing tend before the
reform and the increase rate reached annuallyabout 2.5%,8.5%, 15.2%,3.4% and 5.2%
sequantly from the annual average of the current farm prices. The study declaires that the
decrease of the maize crop with a rate about 1.4%, but after the Reform it is noticed that
the farm prices of wheat, rice, maize, bean, cotton and sugercane had an increasing trend
and statistically significant with an annual rate of 97.4%, 15.4%, 11%,87%, 16% and
15.8% sequantly. As it concerns the per feddan net revenue, it occures that, as for the
wheat, maize, bean and sugarcane it had a decreasing trend before the reform with a rate
reached about 13%, 25%, 24% and 0.5% sequantly. As for the rice and cotton they had
an increasing trend was about 10010and 9.4% forthe two crops sequantly. After applying
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the, eeconomic reform policy, it occuer that there is an increasing trend and statistically
significant for the wheat, rice, maize, cotton and cane with an increase rate reached
about 9:3%;;;16.4%, 6.1%, 55.3% and IB%sequantly, also the study declaires its
decreasing for the bean crop with a decrease rate rl:llChedO.2%.As after applying the
Eeconomic Reform Policy, it occured that the wheat, rice and cotton had an increased
tread withan increase rate reached about 3.8%, 8.7%,and 16.7% from the annual average
of the net revenue per feddan . As for the maize and sugarcane they had a decline trend
with a ratio about 5.4% and 19”10 from the annual average of the revenue per feddan
sequantly. As for the surplus value, the study dealing that it raised from about 279, 250,
242, 263, 389 and 554 pound per feddan as an average of the first period, before the
Reform, and reached to about 808, 848, 824, 850, 1382 and 1866 as an average for the
second period, after the Reform, for the wheat, rice, maize, bean, cotton and sugarcane
sequantly, and also for the revenue of the invested pound, it is clear from the study that it
reached, as an average during the firt period before the Reform, about 0.64, 0.37, 0.41,
0.66, 0.28 and 0.37 and wa increaed to about 1.1,0.8,0.8,0.69,0.82 and 0.72 pounds,
as an average of the second period, after the Reform,
The thired partition studying the Analysis of variance of the most imporotant
eeconomic variables that affect on the production on the main crops before and after
applying the Eeconomic-Refonn Policy,it is clear that for the two periods of study and
the cultivated area, that the deferences are significant and assured statistically at the level
of 0.1 for the crops of wheat, maize, cotton and sugarcane, this mean that there is an
evidence that the Eeconomic-Refonn Policy had. a real effect and Positive, on the
agriculture sector. on the average of the cultivated area, and the differences of the rice
and been had no significance. As for the per,feddan productivity, it was clear that the
significance of the averages that was assured statistically at the level 0.01 for the crops,
the..wheat, rice, maize and sugarcane. And at level 0.05 for the cotton but for the bean
the significance of the differences did not be assured, that is an evidence that the
Eeconomic Refonn policy have a real and Positive affect on the per feddan average
productivity for the formal crops except the bean. As for the total costs, the farm price
and the per feddan net revenue, the Analysisof variance result decleaire the significance
of the differences and that it is assurred statistically at the level 0.01 for the wheat rice,
maize, cotton, bean and sugarcane and that is an evidence that the Eeconomic Reform
Policy have a real effect on each the average of the total costs, the farm price and the net
revenue per feddan for the main crops of the study.
The third chapter of the study, it deltwith production analysis of the agricultural
main crops, it contained of two parts, the first, deals with estimating the production
functions of the important crops ofthe study, this was before applying the Eeconomic
Reform Policy. For the wheat, it recommended that the two factors of chemical fertilizer
and the mean power have a positive effect on the volume of production, and as for the
Rice, it is showed that the variables of the function had an unsignificant effect, but for the
Maize, it is showed that the factor of mechanical power had a positive effect on the
production, and fina1lyfor the cotton it is clear that the factor of mechanical work had a
negative effect on the volume of total production. At second, after applying the
Eeconomic Reform Policy, the results of the study shows that concerning the chemical
ferti1izer it had a positive effect of the volume of production, and as for the Rice,the
value of seeds had a positive effect on the production. For the Maize, the two factors of
the mean power and the mechanical power had a positive effect on the production, and at
fina1 for the cotton crop, it is revealed that the value of seeds had a negative effect on the
volume of production.
The second part, it delt with responce functions of production to the total
production of the main important crops, before applying the Eeconomic Reform policy,
the results of the study, as for the wheat, it shows that the net revenue if increased by
10”10,that lead to increase of the total production by 2. I%, and for the Rice, if the net
revenue increase by 10”/0that had to an increase of the production by 0.26%, and for the
Maize, the increase of the net revenue by one pound in the present year, leads to an
increase of the total production in the next year by about 2 thousand ardab, and finally
for the cotton, the increase of the net revenue by one pound in the present year, leads
toan increase in the total production in the next year by about 0.6 thousand kentar. After
applying the Eeconomic Reform Policy, it is showed that for the wheat, the increase of
the net revenue by one pound in the present year, lead to an increase of the total
production by about 3.2 thousand ton and for the crop of Rice, it showed that by
increasing the net revenue by one pound in the present year, leads to an increase of the
total production by about 3.2 thousand ton. An as for the Maize, the results shows that
an increase of the net revenue per feddan in the present Year,that lead to an increase of
the total production by 7.7 thousand ardab in the next year and finally, for the cotton, the
increase of the net revenue per feddan of it by one pound in the present year, leads to
increase the total production by 0.42 thousand kentar in the next year.
The fourth chapter of this study was concerned of studing the production costs
analysis of the main agricultral and it contained of two particions. The first delt with a
study of the structural formation of the production cost fthe most important main crops
under the Eeconomic-Reform Policies. It occured that total costs of production per
feddan ..from the crops, these are, the ..wheat, rice, maize, cotton, bean, and sugarcane
reached. aboI,It 226, 273, 247,215,411 and 586 pound per feddan as an average of the
first period, before the Reform, while it reached about 604, 710, 720, 572,912 and 1458
pound per feddan as an average for the second period, after the Reform, for the previous
crops sequantly. It was clear that the rates of increase in the constant costs during the
-period of Reform than in the period before the Reform reached about 185%.229%,
274%, 166%, 219”10 and 186%, that for the formal crops sequantly, and that is an
evidence that this great increase of the constant costs in the second period than in the
first period as a result of liberlization of the relationship between the owner and the in the
agricultural-and leave it to the powers of the market. As about the variable costs of the
production of feddan from the formal most important main crops, the results declaires
that there are rates of increase for the variable costs during the second period, after the
Reform than of the average variable costs during the first period, before the Reform, and
were about 161%, 150%, 175%, 189%, 107% and 141% for the wheat, rice, maize,
bean, cotton and sugarcane sequantly, that was refered to the total liberlization of the
prices of requests of the Agricultural production and not to support it ever. This was
followed by a total liberlization of the find prices of the main crops. This it occured from
the study that the costs of the manpower payrole come in the first stage, then the costs of
items of production requests come in the seconod stage, then in the third stage there is
the item of the cots of Mechanical work, and that from the total of the variable costs
before and after the applying of the Eeconomic-Reform policy and for the same previous
crops sequantly. The study declaires the development of the production requests’s value,
as for the costs of seeds, it reached about 10.3, 20, 5.6, 20.8, 2.4, 35, pound per feddan
as an average of the first period and 40.2, 73.3, 29.8, 85, 19.8 and 97.3 pound per
feddan as an average of the second period of the study and after applying the Reform
Policy for the wheat, rice, maize, bean, cotton and cane sequantly. As for the item of the
manpower payrole for the previous crops sequantly it raised from about 82.6, 81.7, 230,
261.6’, 118 and 108 pound per feddan as an average of the first period ofthe study to
about 172, 216.6, 221.5, 181.5, 402 and 392 pound per feddan for the same crops
sequantly, and as an average for the second period after the Reform. As for values of the
mechanical work, it raised from about 37, 48, 32, 30, 34 and 78 pond per feddan as an
average of the first period of the study to about 121, 172, 101, 109, 102 and 257 pound
per feddan as an average for the second period of the study and for the same previous
crops sequantly.
As for the second partition of this chapter of study, it delt with studying the
production cost functions and its estimation for the most important main crops, for
example, the results shows, for the wheat, that the eeconomic stage of crop production
in the first period of the study is begening from a productioon estimated by 1.35 ton per
feddan and that this production is in the eeconomic-stage where the factor of elasticity
was 6.1, but for the second period, it-shows that the main volume of prodcution and the
more effecient in productivity is at 2.2 ton, it was noticed that the level of production of
this crop acheaves this volume, and the factor of elasticity was 1.6 which is a very
positive .value, and it shows that the production in this period is acheaved in the
Eeconomic-stage also. As for rice, the eeconomic-stage for production of this crop
begins with a production estimated by 2.37 per feddan and that the average revenue per
feddan of the crop establish the volume of production the more efficient and more
profitable, the factor of elasticity 4.3, that means that the production is in the
Eeconomic-Stage, that is during the first period of study, but as for the second period, it
shows that the volume of production for the crop of rice is acheaved the condition of
maximum profit and it shows that by calculating the elasticity of costs at the level of the
revenue per feddan that is estimated by about 3 tons, and the fact or of elasticity was 7.1,
that show it is positive and bigger than the rand 1, that measur that the production during
the period of Reform is in the eeconomic-stage. As for the crop of maize, it occure from
the study that the optimum productive volume and the more effecient in productivity is
faced by a production estimated by 14.8 ardab, while in average of production for feddan
reached about 14 ardab, but in the second period of the study it shows that the volume of
the optimum production volume is 16.1 ardab and the average of production offeddan
during this period was 16.5 ardab, that means that the production in the econmic stage
during the second period, where the factor of elasticitywas 5.7. As for the sugercane
crop, the study results reveals that the value of production that achieve the first
condition of the conditions of profit is reached about 31.4 ton per feddan, and it is
noticed that it is more by 3.5 ton per feddan than the optimum volume at the average of
farm price of 22.6 pound per ton, also it is noticed that the elasticity factor was about
2.3, it was positive and bigger than the round one, that means that the production of the
crop before applying the Eeconomic Reform Policy is in the Eeconomic Stage. After the
applying of the Reform Policy the results show the volume of production that achieves
the conditions of Profit which reached about 32 ton per feddan and this is more than the
optimum volume of production by 3.2 ton per feddan at the average farm price of
pound per ton, and by estimating the elasticity of costs, the elasticity factor was 8.6, it is
positive and bigger than the round one, which means that the production during this period is in the eeconomical stage.
Finally, it containes the summary, the most important results and the recommendations.