الفهرس 
الباب الاوليوجد فقط 14 صفحة متاحة للعرض العام
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المستخلص
This study includes six chapters. Chapter one includes
the introduction and the objectives and review of literature
in the field of wheat production and consumption. The second
chapter includes wheat production and consumption in Egypt.
The third chapter includes the sample size and study area.
The fourth chapter includes wheat production in the sample.
The fifth chapter includes costs of wheat production in the
study sample. The sixth chapter includes wheat consumption
in the study sample.
The introduction showed that wheat represents one third
of the winter productive land area. It also provides the
individual with one third of calories he needs. The importance
of this research lies in the fact that wheat is considered one
of the most important crops grown in Egypt. Wheat is also
considered’the most important food crop. The study problem lies
in the fact that wheat production cannot meet its demand. The
thesis aims at proposing economic suggestions to develop
productive efficiency and to rationalize wheat consumption
This study implemented qualitative and quantitative analytical
methods. It relied on questionnaire data for the estimation of
production functions, cost functions and consumption functions
in addition to the analysis of time series datat, obtained
from the Ministry of Agriculture bulletins and the Central
Agency for Public Mobolization and Statistics.
The second chapter presents production and consumption
of wheat in Egypt. It consists of two sections. The first
presents land productivity of wheat, prices, and the value
g the period (1970-1987). The decreasing rate
of wheat durin The
n wheat area was about 2.7 thousand feddans annually.
j
annual increasing rate of feddan productivity was about 0_16
ardab. The an nual increase rate of wheat production was
about 0.19 million ardab_ The annual increase rate of farm
rices of wheat was about 1.5 pounds/ardab AS to the fixed
P ened. The annual
farm prices no substantial increase happ
ncrease rate of the wheat value was 23 million pounds accor-
4 million pounds according
dingto current prices, and about 1)
to the fixed prices. seventy six percent of production changes
were due to productivity changes. Fourteen percent of production
changes were due to Brea changes. The second section in this
lies
chapter was about wheat consumption in Egypt. wheat supp
about 44%
the individual with about 34% of the total calories,
fat as an average
of the total protien, and about 9% of the total
for the period (1984-1986). This section also includes development
of local production, imports, consumtion, retail prices
and the monetary value of imports during the period (1970-1986),
Thus, the annual increase rate of production was about 0.04
million tons. Imports increased about 0.38 million tons; .and
total consumption increased 0.42 million tons. The annual
ncrease rate of retail prices amounted to 1.24 piastre/Kg.
j according
according to current prices and about 0.05 piastres/kg
iflorease rate for the monetary value
of imports was about 61 million pounds according to current
prices and about 12.5 million pounds according to fixed
prices.
This section also presents factors influencing total
consumpiton of wheat, and on the individual Quota of wheat.
The most important factors influencing the total consumption
are population and price ratio of wheat and maize. There is
a positive correlation between wheat consumption and price
ratio between wheat and maize. The cross elasticity was about
0.78. The most important factors influencing the individual
Quota were the actual income and the price ratio between
wheat and maize. The income elasticity was about 0,34. The
cross elasticity was about 1.19. Development of self-sufficiency
rate and development of wheat monetary subsidy rate were studied
together with subsidy effect on wheat consumption and the effect
of subsidy on self-sufficiency rate. The annual decreased rate
of self-sufficiency was about 1.7% and the subsidy size increases
annually at a rate of 58.9 million egyptian pounds. The total
consumption of wheat increased at a rate of 0.005 million tons
for everyone million pounds increase in subsidy.
decreases at a rate of 0.02% for everyone million pounds subsidy
j ncrease.
The third chapter was about sample farms and study area.
It also presents causes which led to field research sample. In
Al-Sharkia and Al-Monofia governorates. The two governorates
represented the biggest land area and productivity per feddan
of wheat in Egypt. Markazes and villages were chosen from the
two governorates at random. This was done by using random
numbers. zagazig markaz, Bani Abbadi and Shebah Al-nakkariah
n Al-Sharkiah Governorate were chosen. Kowisna Markaz, Kaft
Ashlim and ashlim in Monofia Governorate were chosen. The study
was directed towards taking random samples from the chosen
villages, taking in account number of holders and total lands
held. Thus, samples of 51, 49, 53 and 47 were taken from Bani
Abbadi, Shibah Alnakkaria Ashlim and Kafr Ashlim villages
respectively. AS the samples were taken from each village, the
farms held were classified in each village into three categories
less than one feddan, (one feddan to less than two feddans)
and (more than 2 feddans). Samples taken from each village were
n appropriate proportion with number of holders and total land
area held.
The fourth chapter deals with wheat production in the study
sample. wheat was distributed through three channels: selfconsumbpiton,
the free market, and delivered to the government.
In spite of the fact that in case of delivery to the government,
prices were the same as in the free market prices, some farmers
prefer selling through the free market than delivering to the
government. This was due to the costs relating to delivery to
to the government, and to the lack of markets in every village.
This caused the producer to pay more for transportation charges_
Farmers who produced big quantities of wheat prefet voluntarily
delivery to the government for lack of whole-Balers
capable to buy their quantities. This chapter included estimated
wheat production function in the study sample_
The yield of wheat (grains) was considered the dependent
variable. The exceplanatory independent variables are the land
area, seeds, labour, machines and animal work plus nitrogin,
phosphatic, and manure fertilizers. In Bani Abbadi village
marginal product for land unit (feddan) and phosphatic fertilizer
and 0.015 Ardab wheat respectively.
unit about were 10.2
Meanwhile, elasticity of production of the above-mentioned
factors about were 0.88 and 0.02 respectively, coefficient of
determination for the model about was 0.97. The marginal production
for land nitrogine and phosphate fertilizers units in
Shibah Nakkaria village were about 7.6, 0.07 and 0.04 ardab
respectively. Elasticity of production for the above mentioned
factors were 0.66, 0.19 and 0.09 respectively-coefficient of
determination was 0.99. The marginal product for the land and
the nitrogen fertilizer in zagazig 7::.: .rkaze was about 7.6, 0.08
ardab respectively. Elasticity of production for the above
mentioned factors were 0.65 and 0.02 respectively. coefficient
of determination was 0 98. The marginal product for the land,
nitrogine fertilizer and the natural manure fertilizer in
Kaft Ashlim village were about 15, 0.03, 0.003 respectively.
Elasticity of production for the above mentioned factors were
about 0.8, 0.2 and 0.02 respectivilv. coefficient of determination
was 0.98. The marginal product for phosphatic fertilizer
and labour in Ashlim village were 0.57 and 0.02 respectively.
Elasticity of the production for the above mentioned
factors were about 0.51 and 0.49 respectively. coefficient of
determination was 0.97. The marginal product for phosphatic
fertilizer and human labour in Kowisna markaz were 0 5’6, and
0.27 respectively. Elasticity of production for the abovementioned
factors were 0.47 and 0.51 respectively. coefficient
of determination was 0.96.
The fifth chapter presents costs of wheat procution. The
costs were divided into two categories Fixed costs which included
and rent and variable costs which include costs of human labour,
1
machines, animal work, nitrogine, phosphatic, natural fertilizers
and seeds. Fixed costs, varible costs were 239 , 352, 591 pounds
per feddan respectively in Bani Abbadi village. About 264, 350,
614 pounds per feddan respectively in Shibah Nakkaria village.
About 288, 465, 753 pounds respectively in Kafr Ashlim village.
About 288, 463, 751 pounds respectively in Ashlim village.
The value of wheat (grains) and the value of straw where about
726 and 254 pounds/feddan respectively. which were about 74.1%
and 25.9% from the total revenue which was 980 pounds/feddan
n Bani Abbadi village. About 790 and 314 pounds/feddan which
were 71.5% and 28.5% from the total revenue which was about
1110 pounds/feddan in Shebah Al-Nakkaria village. About 1065
and 589 pounds/feddan which were 64.4% and 35.6% from the total
revenue which was about 1655 pounds/feddan in kafr Ashlim village.
About 1021, 537 pounds/feddan which were about 65.5% and 34.5%
from the total revenue which was about 1559 pounds/feddan in
Ashlim village. in this chapter also, cost function was estimated
Total costs were divided into main product (wheat grain) and
by-product (straw) in proportion to the contribution of each
j n the total revenue.
The sixth chapter presented wheat consumption in the study
sample in 1989. The annual consumption of the consuming unit of
wheat and its products in Bani Abbadi, Shibah Al-Nakkaria, Kafr
Ashlim and Ashlim were about 159, 161, 165 and 144 kilograms
respectively which were about 74%, 7696,L77% and 72% of the
averge consumption of total grains (wheat, maize and rice) which
were about 213, 211, 214 and 200 kgs/annually. Total average
expenditure for wheat consumption in Bani Abbadi village,
Shibah Al-nakkaria, Kafr Ashlim and Ashlim successively were
about 76, 82, 76, 53 pounds annually which were about 72%, 90%
76).: and 71% of the average total expenditure for total grain
consuming unit. This chapter also dealt with the study of the
economic factors influencing wheat consumption. The sensitivity
of wheat consumed to changes in the number of consuming units,
was calculated. change in the number of consuming units of 10%
results in a similar change in the quantity of wheat consumce
of 9.8% in Bani Abbadi village, about 9.4. in Shebah Al Nakkaria
illage, 8.5 in kafr Ashlim village and 10.7. in Ashlim village.
The income elasticities of wheat were calculated. The
coefficients were 0.02, 0.24, 0.21, 0.41 in Bani Abbadi, Shebah
Al-Nakkaria kafr Ashlim and Ashlim villages respectively. The
wheat expenditure elasticities in mentioned villages were 0.03, and 0 42 respectively.