الفهرس 
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Abstract
The financial crisis had an adverse impact on many countries such as Egypt, starts from the third quarter of 2008, in addition to the Egyptian revolution of January 2011 which acted as a force-majeure for investments and construction projects in Egypt. Shortage of offered Bids dramatically increases the competition between companies of the construction sector. This is sequentially affected on quality, productivity and cost, respectively. On the other hand, it seems to be a mandatory for updating project strategies and management that can appropriately and effectively manage project risk.
An effective risk management process encourages the construction companies to identify and quantify risks. Construction companies that manage risk effectively and efficiently realizes financial stability, greater productivity and higher performance rates. This research work aims at introducing a decision support system for quantifying the risk especially for petroleum construction projects in Egypt.
The proposed Risk Impact Assessment Modeling “RIAM” (Cost overrun Modeling) can be utilized as a tool for estimating the most likely percentage for budget contingency during the planning/ execution stage of such projects.
As such, the objectives of the presented research are to identify, study, and assess the effect of the factors that affect cost contingency and to develop a model that predicts such contingency. The developed model will use three common software. Data are collected from sixteen construction companies in Egypt through questionnaires. The developed model is implemented according to the collected data, which show robust results. Based upon the collected data for three samples of case study projects, Cost overrun range from 14-37% of project overall cost. This result is almost closed to the estimated cost overrun by the illustrated model. The developed model is deemed essential to academics and planners of construction projects.
The developed values will support the top management to quantify the risk and make better decisions concerning the risk assessment in construction projects. Factors that affect cost overrun are identified and discussed using literature review and experts opinion. A questionnaire survey is conducted to collect the impact of each factor. The research methodology is performed using a main model and analysis methods: deterministic, based on either Analytic Network Process (ANP) or Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) analysis, and probability distribution using crystal ball software. The model will use the collected data through questionnaires to develop the probability distribution, concerning the attributes likelihood and cost impact.
The output charts developed by crystal ball software will be imported by Microsoft excel spread-sheets to build the matrices, each matrix will describe the relation weights with respect of each sub-criterion, in order to be utilized by ANP/AHP. The same procedure will be applied for the relations between sub-criterion themselves, to develop the overall criteria matrices which will be transferred also to the ANP/AHP.
To enhance the matrices consistency and decrease the consistency ratio CR in order to validate whether the pair-wise comparison matrix provides a completely consistent evaluation (Saaty, 1982); Expert choice 2000 software will be used to best fit the relations between attributes and update ranking preferences. To increase model accuracy the ANP/AHP analysis will be applied for demonstrating the attributes cost impact weights (priorities), three loops will be run, the first one will utilize the mean values collected from the questionnaires, the second loop will utilize the minimum values while the final loop will utilize the maximum values. Therefore the optimistic and the pessimistic percentages can be achieved to determine the cost impact range.