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Abstract
Samir Tantawi El-Sayed Tantawi. Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment for some Vulnerable Sectors in Egypt using Climate Change Regional Circulation Models. Unpublished Ph.D. of Science Thesis, Department of Basic Environmental Science, Institute of Environmental Studies & Research, Ain Shams University, 2016.
Egypt is highly vulnerable to adverse impacts of climate change. Agriculture is considered as an essential economic driver in Egypt. It is an issue as a local food source, for international trade, food industry and fiber manufacturing and water and land use. The climate change vulnerability of agriculture is mainly attributed to each of economy, social and environmental parameters. Climate change will affect agricultural crop yield which consequently impact food security domains, namely access to food, food supplies stability, food utilization and food production and trade. The aim of this study is to develop an assessment of the impacts of climate change on agricultural based on real observations and results obtained by previous research works in Egypt. Both Regional Circulation Models (RCM) and Decision Support System for Agro-technology Transfer (DSSAT) have been used to generate climate projections up to 2100. Results indicate that climate model performance varies for different regions or process under consideration, the Model ECHAM5 give the best matching results to observations compared with other models. Climate change can exacerbate the food security crises that Egypt already faces, and without urgent and comprehensive set of adaptation measures, Egypt may experience adverse impacts on more than one strategic crop.
Key words: Climate Change, Global Circulation Models, Regional Circulation Models, mathematical computer models, temperature, Egypt.