الفهرس 
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Abstract
Coastal zones have an important effect in countries’ economic. The Coastal zones monitoring are an important task in environmental protection and sustainable development. For example, it may be used for construction, Water desalination plants, Electrical power generation stations and Sewage treatment plants etc. In order to prepare an overall and sustainable strategy for coastal zone management, the shoreline change data and forecasting of the future changes are required. Investigations of historical costal changes are essential to understand the physical mechanisms of the changes and to predict the future shoreline evaluation. It is thus crucial and worthwhile to quantitatively estimate the areas of erosion and accretion.
It is important to be able to detect the shoreline position in costal zones with relatively high accuracy. That is leads to be able to estimate the changes in the shoreline positions and the change rates of shoreline during the time.
The first purposes of this research were to compare and evaluate six of shoreline extraction methods based on remotely sensed data. Those methods were digitizing, Thresholding band ratio, and classification, Normalized difference water index (NDWI), Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and Improved method. Those methods were applied on landsat8 2015 image to extract the shorelines position for Ras El-Hekma coastal zone Egypt. The extracted shorelines were compared, with reference 2015 shoreline which detected by a high resolution image Pleiades B1 (0.50 m) special resolution. A comparative study has been done depending on four evaluation criteria.
The results show that all shorelines which are extracted by six methods are accepted where 90 % of shifting distances (distance between extracted shoreline and reference shoreline) with in one pixel size (30m), but The shoreline extracted by Thresholding band ratio method is the most one closed to the true shoreline where the mean value is 11.04 m, RMSE is 9.54 m about one third the value of the pixel size (30 m) of landsat8 image, and 94.44 % of the shoreline segments lie within 1 pixel distance of the true shoreline. The fourth evaluation criteria D90 % is 22.35 m, which 90 % of shifting distances between extracted and true shoreline is ling in. comparing above results with those of five another methods show that the thresholding band ratio method is the best one.
The second aim of this research was to study the Shoreline position, shoreline change rates, predict the future shoreline in short and long term and detecting the quantative and position of errotion and accrotion areas for the study area. As a case study site, this dissertation focuses on Ras El-Hekma site which located on the north west of Egypt on the Mediterranean Sea, between 31° 6` N to 31° 15` N in latitude and 27° 41` E to 27° 53` E in longitude. These coastal zones receive attention by Egyptian government because it is most promising area for future of tourism investment to Egypt during the coming 20 years, flows of funds and foreign direct investment estimated at tens of millions of dollars in capital. Rates and trends Information of shoreline change can give recommendation to the decision makers to decide the best coastal area to be invested and also can be used to improve understanding of underlying causes and potential effects of coastal erosion/ accretion which can support informed coastal management.
Thresholding band ratio method has been used to extract shoreline. Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) used to detect Change rate of shorelines by EPR (end point rate model). Also future shoreline positions based on precedent shorelines has been predicted and has been corrected with a proposed model. Multi-temporal satellite images acquired from (USGS) U.S. Geological Survey in 1973, 1987, 1995, 2003 and 2015 along time period 42 years. These images were used to detect the shoreline position, predict the future shoreline, and to estimate change rate.
The results show that the eastern side of study area tends to be eroded all the time period. The western area has about 40- 70 % erosion and 30-60 % accretion depend on date. Overall 42 years, between 1973-2015, the maximum accretion rate is 1.42 m/year and erosion rate is -2.12 m/year. The minimum accretion rate is 0.02 m/year and erosion rate is -0.01 m/year. The average rates are defined as 0.45 m/year for accretion and -0.80 m/year for erosion. Also the changes in the area of Ras El-Hekma site according erosion and accretion is calculated. The results show that the maximum change rate of erosion and accretion areas at 1987-1995 are 0.20, 0.04 (Km2/year) respectively and the minimum at 2003-2015 are 0.03 , 0.01 (Km2/year) respectively.
The predicted 2015 shoreline was compared with the actual shoreline detected from high resolution satellite imagery of 2015. The positional shift at each sample point is observed. The positional error varies from -49.8 m to 76.3 m. The Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) for the future predicted shoreline 2015 was found to be 15.75 m. Also the future shoreline 2020 and 2050 has been predicted and corrected.