الفهرس 
الفصل الاوليوجد فقط 14 صفحة متاحة للعرض العام
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المستخلص
The issue of climate change has become one of the most serious contemporary issues that threaten the environmental security of many countries, especially those with limited financial and technological potential. Studies have shown increasing temperatures and fluctuation in rainfall in many periods, leading to drought and lack of water resources in several countries, hampering development and increasing the suffering of their populations in marginal regions.
The study aimed to identify the most important climate changes affecting the study area, pasture and breeding activity, to recognize the direct impact of these changes on small ruminants and their nutrition sources and the fluctuation of their numbers in Matrouh. The study aimed to determine the most problems and obstacles that impede ruminants’ breeders and breeding activity under climate change, to get to know the practical solutions and alternatives available to the country and breeders’ capabilities to ensure easy application of these alternatives and solutions.
The study was relied on the published and unpublished secondary data available from the concerned authorities such as the Ministry of Agriculture and Land Reclamation, as well as the reports published by the World Bank, the UNDP documents, the FAO reports, surfing the official online site of Matrouh Governorate, reports of the Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics, the available data from directorate of agriculture and directorate of veterinary in Matrouh Governorate, in addition to the agricultural publications of the periodic animal production issued by the economic affairs sector, local and international researches that related to the climate changes . The study was based on a time series that shows the evolution of temperature and rates of rainfall and the fluctuation of ruminants’ numbers, the study also related on initial data extracted from the questionnaire results.
The study applied different methods of analysis (Percentages and the Means) to analyze the climate data and the fluctuation in livestock numbers in the new governorates and Matrouh governorate. The simple regression and multiple regression equations were used to obtain the study results.
The study included four Parts in addition to the introduction and summaries in Arabic and English,and references in both languages
The First Part handled the theoretical framework and the review in two chapters. The first chapter dealt with the theoretical framework of the study, the second chapter dealt with the previous studies related to the subject of the study. It was divided according to five fields: previous studies in climate change and its effects, rainfall and water resources feeding pastures, pastures and feeding ruminants, Livestock and small ruminants and the socio-economic studies related to the study area.
The second Part is divided into two chapters, the First Chapter handled the study area and the Second Chapter included the climate changes in the study area. The First Chapter dealt with the current situation in Matrouh , and reviewed the characterization of the governorate, its administrative and topographical division, its relative importance, the characterization of human, water and land resources, and distribution of population according to the centers and populated areas. The second chapter dealt with climate change in the study area in terms of changes in the minimum and maximum temperatures, changes in rainfall rates and identification of the most important climatic changes affecting the study area in general.
The results showed the strategic importance of governorate, and its characteristic of many natural, historical and environmental, as well as limited manpower under conditions of deterioration of infrastructure, roads and services as well as the scarcity of water resources and the deterioration of pastures, Matrouh lands was classified into five (5) classes according to the degree of fertility, the proportion of first and second classes, as the most fertile agricultural lands didn’t exceeded 2% of the total lands..
It was found that the minimum temperature ranges between13 to 16and the average from (1980-2017) was about 15, and minimum temperature decreases with statistically significant rate by 0.04 degrees annually, The maximum temperatures range between 23 to 33, the average temperature for the period (1980-2017) was about 24 and the maximum temperatures were increasing at a statistically significant rate by 0.11 degrees annually, It was noticeable that drought and heat stress causing deterioration in small ruminants health and its productivity. The rainfall in study area starts in November and ends in March. The heaviest rainy months are December and January, and rainfall rates ranged from 29.72 mm to 402 mm. The average annual rate during the period 1980-2017 was 142 mm. This fluctuation and decrease have serious effects on the desired development in Matrouh Governorate, where the people of the region rely on rainfall to carry out all agricultural and development activities.
The Third Part was divided into (2) chapters, the First Chapter handled studying the evolution of small ruminants numbers, the Second Chapter dwelt with the development of pastures and the rain fed areas of barley. The results showed the importance of small ruminants in the desert areas and the relative importance of Matrouh ruminants. The numbers of livestock in Egyptincreased by 45% higher than the numbersin 1991, the numbers increase with statistically significant rate by 292 thousand per year.
. Results indicated that the numbers of small ruminants in nation-wide reached to 9,8 millionheads in 2016, the number increased with statistically significant rate by 141.93 thousand heads yearly, the number of small ruminants in the desert governorates in 2016 came to 12 million heads and the number decreased with statistically significant rate by 7.6 thousand heads per year.
It was found that the number of small ruminants in Matrouh decreased from 1.05 million head in 1991 to 534 thousand in 2016, the numbers in Matrouh decreased with statistically significant rate by 17 thousand heads per year. It was also shown the deterioration of current situation of small ruminant production in Matrouh in 2017, the numbers decreased by 40% from the previous year 2016 to reach to 323 thousand heads.
Results of Second Chapter showed adangerous decrease at rainfed barley areas from 51,597 feddans to 127feddans only during the period (2000-2016) decreasingby 1500 feddans per year.
By studying the most important factors affecting the population of small ruminants in Matrouh, there was a constant relationship between the rain fed barley areas and the numbers of small ruminants.
The Fourth part handled sources and methods of collecting data, and the stages of preparing the questionnaire. The results show that the age of small ruminants’ breeders ranged between 23-67 years and the percentage of illiterates was about 32%, and the percentage of small ruminants breeders under the primary certificate was 72% of the total breeders, while the proportion of those of university education was 0%. The results showed that breeders experience ranged between 13-57 years besides their adherence to traditional practices and knowledge, and the lack of reliance on other sources of information in the field of breeding. There was a huge variation in breeders’ income level, ranged between a minimum of 2000 LE to a maximum of 40000 LE, the average mean for breeders income reached to 15,000 LE per month, the percentage of the married breeders was 98% of the total breeders, the average of a single family numbers reached to 7 persons, results showed a lack of breeders’ interest to send their children to school at the different education stages besides encouraging them to engage in raising small ruminants at a the early stages of their age.
Breeders raised only the domestic breeds like (Al Barky), and breeders’ animal possession ranged between a minimum of 30 heads and a maximum of 1000 heads, and 95% of the breeders didn’t isolate the male stallion from the herd. It was also indicated a decrease in the rainfall and a rise in temperatures which increased drought comparing with previous years, which affected small ruminants severely, There were 3 periods of mating, preferably in (September and October),
Theresults show the high price of fodder that reaches to 5000 LE per ton, The share of fodderwas estimated at around 0.75 Kg - 3 Kg per head daily in the summer, while it was around 1Kg - 4 Kg per head daily in the winter, with an average of 1.72 Kg per day in the summer versus 2.25 Kg in the winter.
It was found that the average for total consumption of breeders’ ruminants was estimated at 7 tons/month in the summer, estimated at 9.7 ton/monthin the winter. It was also found that the average cost of daily feeding for one head is estimated at 9 pounds in the summer and estimated at 11.5 pounds in the winter.
The monthly feeding average cost of one head is estimated by 270 pounds in the summer season and is estimated by 345 pounds during the winter season. The average cost for breeders’ ruminants of feed is estimated by 1265LE/day in the summer season, estimated by 1677 LE/day in the winter season.The monthly average costs of feeding ruminants for the total breeders were 34,600 per month in the summer season, 48,200 per month in the winter season
The sale price for recent weaning’ sheep ranges from 900 to 1200 LE, and the price for goats ranged between 800-1000 L.E, The price of selling ruminants for breeding in sheep ranges between 1500-1700 L.E,in goats reaches to 1100, while the price of adult small ruminants was between 2200-2600 L.E in sheep, in goats between 2000 and 2300 L.E, The price of sheep for slaughter is between 3000-3500. The price of adult goat for slaughter is between 2700-3200 L.E for the head. It was found that the sale price of kilo in sheep ranged between 55-65, in goats ranged between 50-60and found that the price of selling meat in modern weaning sheep ranged between 140-150 L.E per kilo, between 120-130 L.E in goats, and the price of kilo in developing goats is 110 L.E, while the price of kilo in the old sheep is 90 L.E. The price of kilo in the old goat is between 80-90 and shows that the farmers did not sell milk or its derivatives, and did not sell wool and hair.
Small ruminants were exposed to many diseases, including fever, septicemia, smallpox and rheumatic fever, as well as poor veterinary services, high prices of medicines and immunizations in the market, lack of rainfall, and the far distances of water resources, the delay in reaching them in critical times, and the poor infrastructure and the deterioration of roads and services at the study area. Breeders suggested some solutions and alternatives to overcome the breeding conditions under the dangerous impact of climate changes.
In order to identify the most important factors influencing the evolution of small ruminants’ numbers, it was assumed that the number of small ruminants in Matrouh Governorate is a function of a number of variables related to breeding activity and breeders such as (personal income, productive barley areas, average cost of the herd, average head cost, educational level, age of the breeder, experience, numbers of family members) there were:
• A significant constant correlation between the variable (numbers of small ruminants) and the variable (income).
• A significant constant correlation between the variable (numbers of small ruminants) and the variable(barley rain fed areas).
• A significant constant correlation between the variable (numbers of small ruminants) and the variable (average monthly cost of the herd heads).
• A significant inverse correlation between the variable (numbers of small ruminants) and the variable (average monthly cost of head feeding).
• There is No significant correlation between variable (numbers of small ruminants) with the rest of the variables.