الفهرس 
IntroductionOnly 14 pages are availabe for public view
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Abstract
Quantifying the economic effects of climate change is a crucial step for planning adaptation in developing countries. For Jordan, global warming has put it among the most vulnerable countries. Wherefore, this study assesses the economic impacts of climate change on Jordanian agriculture using optimization model. Therefore, this study aims to assess climate change impacts on water demand and supply, and agricultural sector vulnerability and identify potential adaptation options in the case of the Jordan Valley
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The primary challenge in the Jordan Valley is to increase the productivity of water used in irrigated agriculture by both reducing losses, unproductive water use and shifting cropping patterns to include increased production of higher-value crops. In addition to the climate change, challenges will exacerbate the existing water scarcity in Jordan in general and in the Jordan Valley in particular
Accordingly, this study implemented the optimization models to explore the impact of climate change in water resources and the agriculture sector in the Jordan Valley. This implies to use secure agricultural recourses in the valley to recommend suitable cropping pattern, which gives the maximum socioeconomic benefits to the country as well as the farmers on an individual level. The study propose the use of improved agriculture practices by shifting to the more water- efficient bundle of crops to optimize yield. This objective is aligned to the objectives of the irrigation water policy in Jordan as mentioned in the Water National Strategy and the Agricultural Policy of Jordan.
CROPWAT 8.0, which is an advanced software developed by the FAO, is used for the estimation of crop water requirements and irrigation requirements based on soil, climate and crop data to be incorporated in the optimization model. The program allows the development of irrigation schedules for different crop management conditions and the calculation of scheme water supply for varying crop patterns.
The total cultivated area in Jordan valley is 302,171 dunum; of which 31,948 dunum are field crops, 164,140 are vegetables and fruit trees comprise 106,083 dunum of the cultivated area.
The total irrigation water supply in Jordan valley are amounted to 158.3 mcm on average for the period from 2010 to 2017. The total water surface from different resources are amounted to 140.3 mcm, mainly from Wehddah dam, Tiberias transfer, Wadi Arab dam, and King Tala dam. Additional water abstraction from ground water are estimated to be 18 mcm, annually.
The total volume of production in metric ton for Jordan valley are amount to 1.16 million tons of fruits, field crops and vegetables. The main production region is the MJV which produces about 616 thousand tons of agricultural production, the labor cost in JV is estimated by MJD 49.7. The total gross output in Jordan valley is estimated to be MJD 326, about MJD 148 are generated from MJV.