الفهرس 
AbstractOnly 14 pages are availabe for public view
 |  | from | 221 |  |  |
| | | from | 221 | | |
Abstract
Wadi El-Rayan depression holds two main lakes, at different elevations. The Upper Lake is located between longitudes 30˚ 25\ 53.0\\ & 30˚ 31\ 10.9\\ E and latitude 29˚ 11\ 30.0\\ & 29˚ 17\ 14.0\\ N. While, the Lower Lake is located between longitudes 30˚ 21\ 8.6\\& 30˚ 25\ 58.8\\ E and latitude 29˚ 05\ 10.3\\& 29˚ 12\ 46.8\\ N. The lakes got their maximum area of 106.33 km2 in 2000. The lakes are linked with an about 5 km connected canal and through a number of waterfalls.
In the late 19th century there was a debate as to whether to use Wadi El-Rayan as a reservoir for the Nile’s flood water, but this suggestion was shelved by building a dam at Aswan as the best solution. In the late 1960s, the agricultural drainage of Fayoum’s farmland into Lake Qarun exceeded its capacity so Wadi El-Rayan depression was found suitable to divert part of this drainage water through canals and tunnels that has been built to transfer water from Fayoum to Wadi El-Rayan. Significant effects started to be seen in 1988, as the human activities with the most impact include agricultural land reclamation, digging and exploration for crude oil, fish farming, building of cafeterias and the creation of tourist visiting areas. With all these developments taking place, the water management of Wadi El-Rayan is receiving renewed attention.
As a result of extensive evaporation of water from such closed ecosystems, the gradual increase of salts, heavy metals, pesticides and other pollutants are expected to change their quality and affect their aquatic life. For this reason, Wadi El-Rayan Lakes were extensively studied for their water quality, physicochemical properties and biological properties.
Eleven water samples were collected seasonally from different locations from the lakes (in addition to the water of the El Wadi Drain), during 2017-2018. The present work was designated, to determine the pollution status and water quality of the lakes by determination of water quality index. And to assess the levels of heavy metal ions (Fe+2, Mn+2, Zn+2, Cu+2, Ni+2, Cr+2, Pb+2, and Cd+2) in Wadi El-Rayan lakes water by determination of metal pollution index and metal index.
The present work includes three chapters, a brief description of them is given as follow:
The first chapter is related to introduction of the thesis where the environmental status of Wadi El-Rayan lakes water and El-Wadi drain are given from the historical background and the literature survey for Chemical studies for Aquatic Environment of Wadi El-Rayan Lakes.
The second chapter contains the experimental parts including sampling techniques, description of the selection, investigated sampling sites and describing the methods applied to determine the physico-chemical properties in water and heavy metals in water .
The third chapter includes the obtained results and their discussion and data analysis as the following during the period of study and discussion of these results obtained which can be summarized as follow: -
1.1. Water analysis
1.1.1. Physical characteristics
• Temperature ranged from 14.4 oC to 26.1 oC. ANOVA showed a highly temporal and spatial significant difference (p< 0.01). In El-Wadi drainage water, temperature ranged between (15.1-24.9 oC).
• Transparency is mainly affected by the waste effluents from El-Wadi drain. The minimum value (35 cm) was recorded at site (1), while the maximum value 320 cm was recorded at site (10). Transparency values in the Upper Lake show a highly temporal significant difference (p< 0.01)Transparency in El-Wadi drainage water is in the range of (15-30 cm).
• EC ranged between (1.72-2.88 mS/cm) and (24.02-33.3 mS/cm) in the Upper and Lower lakes, respectively. where the maximum value was recorded at site (11) during summer and the minimum value was recorded at site (1) during autumn. Electric conductivity values in Wadi El-Rayan lakes showed a highly temporal significant difference (p<0.01). EC in El-Wadi drainage water ranged between 1.12-2.87 mS/cm.
• TS varied in the Upper and Lower lakes between (1.27-1.96 g/L) and (17.19-24.93 g/L), respectively, where highest values were recorded during summer and lowest values were recorded during spring. ANOVA revealed that The TS values in the Lower Lake show a high temporal significant difference (p<0.01) and a spatial significant difference (p<0.05). In El-Wadi drainage water, TS ranged between (0.85-2.15 g/L).
• TDS increased during summer, while the lowest values were recorded during spring. It varied between (1.23-1.94 g/L) and (17.18-24.92 g/L) in the Upper and Lower Lakes, respectively. The salinity (TDS) in the Lower Lake was much more than the upper one . The TDS values in the Upper Lake show a highly temporal significant difference (p<0.01), while in the Lower Lake show a spatial significant difference (p<0.05). In El-Wadi drainage water, TDS ranged between (0.79-2.12 g/L).
• TSS ranged between (11.0 - 49.18 mg/L) and (7.019.64 mg/L) in the Upper and Lower lakes respectively, the maximum value was recorded at site (1) during summer and the minimum value was recorded at site (7) during winter. The total suspended solids values in Wadi El-Rayan lakes show temporal significant difference (p< 0.05) . In El-Wadi drainage water, TSS ranged between (31.0-56.9 mg/L).
1.1.2. Chemical characteristics
• The pH of Wadi El-Rayan lakes water was in alkaline side and it ranged from (7.88-8.83) and from (8.21-8.42) in the Upper and Lower Lakes respectively, the maximum value was recorded at site (3) during spring and the minimum value was recorded at site (1) during summer. The pH values in the Upper Lakes show a high temporal significant difference (p< 0.01). In addition, pH in El-Wadi drainage water ranged between (7.67-7.74(.
• The water of Wadi El-Rayan lakes water was well oxygenated all year round. DO varied between (4.1-10.1 mg/L) and (4.6-8.1 mg/L) in the Upper and Lower Lakes, respectively. The DO values in Wadi El-Rayan lakes show a highly temporal significant difference (p< 0.01). The maximum value was recorded at site (6) during winter, while the minimum value was recorded at site (1) during summer. In El-Wadi drainage water, DO was in the range of (3.1-6.7 mg/L).
• BOD ranged between (2.1-7.9 mg/L) and (1.0-6.8 mg/L) in the Upper and Lower Lakes respectively, where the maximum values was recorded at site (3) during autumn and the minimum value was recorded at site (9) during winter. On the other hand, in El-Wadi drainage water, BOD ranged between (5.1-8.4 mg/L).
• COD ranged between (16.1-25.1 mg/L) and (11.4-16.1 mg/L) in the Upper and Lower Lakes, respectively. The COD values in Wadi El-Rayan lakes show a highly temporal significant difference (p< 0.01).The maximum value was recorded at site (1) during summer, while the minimum value was recorded at site (10) during autumn. On the other hand, COD in El-Wadi drainage water ranged between (2.0-29.7 mg/L).
• Major anions and cations:
1. Carbonate Alkalinity and bicarbonate Alkalinity values in the Upper Lake varied in the ranges of (0.0-31.8) and (185.6-258) mg/L respectively, while in the Lower Lake were (15.2-42.0) and (182.4-238.2) mg/L respectively.
2. Chloride concentrations ranged from (0.36-0.62 g/L) and (6.8-10.12 g/L) in the Upper and Lower Lakes, respectively. In El-Wadi drainage water, Cl- values ranged between (0.18-0.64 g/L).
3. Sulphate concentrations varied in the ranges of (0.26-0.44 g/L) and (4.17-5.69 g/L) in the Upper and Lower Lakes, respectively. In El-Wadi drainage water, SO4-- values ranged between (0.095-0.453 g/L).
4. Calcium values varied in the ranges of (37.3-58.2) and (217.3-308.5) mg/L in the Upper and Lower Lakes, respectively. In El-Wadi drainage water, Ca+2 ranged between (21.9-58.7 mg/L).
5. Magnesium values varied in the ranges of (57.4-89.5) and (593.1-747) mg/L in the Upper and Lower Lakes, respectively. In El-Wadi drainage water, Mg++ values ranged between (41.4-102.7mg/L).
6. Sodium values varied in the ranges of (0.29-0.48 g/L) and (5.3-7.62 g/L) in the Upper and Lower Lakes, respectively. In El-Wadi drain drainage water, Na+ ranged between (0.16-0.49 g/L).
7. Potassium values varied in the ranges of (15.69-37.11 mg/L) and (125.9-197.4 mg/L) in the Upper and Lower Lakes, respectively. In El-Wadi drain drainage water, K+ ranged between (11.7-31.4 mg/L).
• Basic nutrient salts
The nutrient salts include compounds that contain nitrogen (NH3, NO2-, NO3- and TN), phosphorus (ortho-P, TP) or silicate (SiO23-) in different forms either in available or non-available forms. The nutrient salts concentrations depend on the drain effluents into lakes and phytoplankton community at different locations.
a) The ammonia concentrations changed in the ranges of (0.02-1.75) mg/L and (0.09-0.30) mg/L in the Upper and Lower Lakes, respectively. In El-Wadi drain drainage water, ammonia ranged between (1.92-3.34) mg/L.
b) The nitrate and nitrite concentrations in the Upper Lake changed in the ranges of (0.03-0.44) mg/L and (2.2-146.57) μg/L respectively, while in the Lower Lake was in the ranges of (0.03-0.08) mg/L and (1.9-19.92) μg/L respectively. In El-Wadi drain drainage water, nitrate and nitrite were (0.29-1.24) mg/L and (158.19-278.94) μg/L respectively.
c) Total nitrogen concentrations changed in the ranges of (0.64-3.19) and (0.57-1.06) mg/L in the Upper and Lower Lakes, respectively. In El-Wadi drain drainage water total nitrogen ranged between (3.52-5.17) mg/L.
d) Total phosphorus and orthophosphate in the Upper Lake changed in the ranges of (24.2-171.1) and (10.0-103.0) μg/L respectively, while in the Lower Lake was in the ranges of (24.2-77.2) and (7.0-20.4) μg/L respectively. In El-Wadi drainage water, total phosphorus and orthophosphate were (102.7-403.4) and (84.0-281.7) μg/L respectively.
e) The SiO23- ranged was in the ranges of (3.2-10.8), (3.6-13.1) mg/L in the Upper and Lower Lakes, respectively and was (3.9-12.8 mg/L) in El-Wadi drainage water. While chlorophyll a was in the ranges of (20.8-101.1) and (3.6-49.8) μg/L in the Upper and Lower Lakes, respectively and was (16.7-103.4) μg/L in El-Wadi drainage water.
• Trace metals in water
The studied trace metals (Fe+2, Mn+2, Zn+2, Cu+2, Ni+2, Cr+2, Pb+2, and Cd+2) showed an irregular distribution pattern in the two lakes with a slight increase in the first one.
a) The iron concentrations were in the ranges of (101.65-385.31) and (145.84-421.01) μg/L in the Upper and Lower Lakes respectively, while in El-Wadi drainage water, was in the ranges of (263.3-513.07) μg/L.
b) The manganese concentrations were in the ranges of (21.72-55.89) and (17.49-48.53) μg/L in the Upper and Lower Lakes respectively, while in El-Wadi drainage water, was in the ranges of (25.51-58.19) μg/L.
c) The zinc concentrations were in the ranges of (22.16-51.69) and (13.74-48.37) μg/L in the Upper and Lower Lakes respectively, while in El-Wadi drainage water, was in the ranges of (39.46-46.19) μg/L.
d) The copper concentrations were in the ranges of (2.38-15.46) and (3.85-10.88) μg/L in the Upper and Lower Lakes respectively, while in El-Wadi drainage water, was in the ranges of (9.98-29.28) μg/L.
e) The nickel concentrations were in the ranges of (6.12-15.77) and (4.87-13.93) μg/L in the Upper and Lower Lakes respectively, while in El-Wadi drainage water, was in the ranges of (20.13-35.9) μg/L.
f) The chromium concentrations were in the ranges of (4.77-22.18) and (5.96-17.67) μg/L in the Upper and Lower Lakes respectively, while in El-Wadi drainage water was in the ranges of (19.39-38.64) μg/L.
g) The lead concentrations were in the ranges of (17.35-47.86) and (12.03-38.49) μg/L in the Upper and Lower Lakes respectively, while in El-Wadi drainage water, was in the ranges of (45.2-52.37) μg/L.
h) The cadmium concentrations were in the ranges of (0.87-3.84) and (0.72-2.02) μg/L in the Upper and Lower Lakes respectively, while in El-Wadi drainage water were in the ranges of (2.54-12.86) μg/L.
• Water Quality Index (WQI):
a) According to the Canadian Council of Ministers of the Environment (CCME-WQI module) the water quality of Wadi El-Rayan lakes water was investigated. The present results indicate that the water quality index (WQI) for the Upper Lake was in the ranges of (42.1-80.14) at the different sites, while the Lower Lake changed between (49.85-88.97) at the different sites for aquatic life. As for the whole area, the Upper Lake water is classified as marginal (WQI = 51) and fair (WQI = 67) for aquatic life and irrigation utilizations, respectively. While the Lower Lake is used for aquatic life utilizations only, due to the progressive increase of the water salinity with average value of 24.02 g/L can’t be used for irrigation utilization. Water of the Lower Lake is classified as fair for the aquatic life utilization at all sites, except for site 6 (which is ranked as ‘marginal’), While, for the whole area, the Lower Lake water is classified as marginal (WQI = 61).
b) Pollution Index (PI): Water pollution index for the Upper Lake showed that all studied metal have not polluted effect for the irrigation utilization. For the aquatic life usage, Fe, Mn, Cu, Zn and Ni do not exhibit any pollution effect in the two lakes, however, Cr, Pb and Cd show different degree of pollution in the different site.
c) Metal Index (MI): According to metal index values, all selected sites in the Upper Lake and Lower Lake are seriously threatened with metal pollution for the aquatic life utilization (MI varies from 15.57 to 24.72). On the other hand, for irrigation utilization the Upper Lake show no pollution effect.
1.2. Modeling for forecasting of some chemical parameters in the water of the Upper Lake in 2030
• The capabilities of ANFIS – within the MATLAB SIMULINK – was investigated to predict a number of physicochemical parameters of Wadi El-Rayan Lakes. Three ANFIS clustering prediction models were investigated and compared. Most of the measurement from 2014 to 2018 were used for the ANFIS training processes and the rest were used for testing and validation of the proposed models. ANFIS models outputs were the predicted chemical oxygen demand (COD), biological oxygen demand (BOD), ammonia (NH4 +1), and nitrate (NO3 -1) of the Wadi El-Rayan Lake at any input. Therefore, the main objective of the current work is to predict the water quality of the Upper Lake by applying the AI technique. It may be the first study that deals with this objective with such approach.
• The water quality parameters, such as chemical oxygen demand, biochemical oxygen demand, ammonia, and nitrate of the lake in 2030 is predicted. Hybrid artificial intelligence techniques are considered effective procedures for defining optimal solutions for many problems. To forecast the water-quality parameters of Wadi El-Rayan Upper Lake, various adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) models were implemented herein using MATLAB SIMULINK and MATLAB ANFIS GUI. Most of the measurement data were used in the training processes and the rest were used for model testing and validation. The developed models were compared to determine the most accurate one, which was in turn used for predicting the physicochemical parameters of the Upper Lake in 2030.
• In conclusion AN ANFIS-SUB clustering model has proved as more suitable for determination of the water quality parameters simulation rather than ANFIS-GRID model for such studies. Three ANFIS-SUB clustering prediction models were investigated to forecast some of the water quality parameters of Wadi El-Rayan Lake. The three prediction models were compared, tested and validated against the measured data for a period from year 2014 to 2018.
• The comparison showed that case 2 in ANFIS-SUB clustering model performance seems more accurate in the testing and validation phases, thus it was the preferable and more suitable for the water quality parameters simulation in such studies. This model was used in forecasting the physicochemical parameters of Wadi El-Rayan Lake at 2030. The expected values showed different increments of 11.6, 1.4, 37.4 and 24.38 % for BOD, COD, NH3 and NO3 content, respectively than the corresponding contents recorded in 2014-2018.
Conclusion and recommendations
El-Rayan lakes are considered an important source of fisheries in the Fayoum governorate. In addition. the upper lake is the main source of irrigation water for the reclaimed land around its boundaries.
The water quality of the lakes is affected by the nature, quantity, and quality of agricultural drainage water (the unique source of the water of the lakes), which is mixed with different types of wastes.
The present results proved that the water quality of El-Rayan lakes deteriorates gradually, especially in the last decade, as a result of increasing the concentration of some chemical elements and heavy metals accumulation. In addition, the progressive increase of salinity in the second lake enhances the remarkable deterioration of the lake’s aquatic environment that may restore the dramatic transformation story of Qarun Lake.
The Water Quality Index showed that the Upper lake water may be fair for irrigation use, while the two lakes are not suitable for aquatic life utilization.
Therefore, the treatment of El-Wadi drainage water must be done; to reduce the nutrients, salts as well as heavy metals, and other pollutants that introduce to the lakes. On the other side, the discharged water into the Lower Lake must be increased to reduce the progressive increase of salinity.
Follow-up of various environmental studies on the lakes of the Wadi El Rayan, and continuous evaluation of the conservation of lake water quality and efforts to increase fish stocks in the lakes.
Attempting a permanent assessment of El Wadi drain and remediation of contaminated elements to maintain water quality.
This study recommends using the model to predict the chemical properties of lakes in Wadi El Rayan for different time periods and obtaining accurate reports for officials to take measures to maintain lake water quality.
The success of this model can be applied to anticipating other elements, it can also be applied to other sources of water and work out problems before they happen.