الفهرس 
Title : Precipitation in the blue nile a spatio-temporal assessment : Modeling and forecasting /
ContentsOnly 14 pages are availabe for public view
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Abstract
Ethiopian precipitation is the main source of water that runs through the Nile. Recent dryness in the Ethiopian highlands, and the latest Nile river basin conflict after Ethiopian declaration of the construction of Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile became an international issue in the past few years. Little is known about whether the decline in precipitation over the Blue Nile basin (BNB) is due to natural variations in climate or human-induced climate change. This thesis provides a spatio-temporal modeling routine to study hydro-climatological variables such as BNB precipitation. This routine includes (1) exploring the BNB precipitation{u2019}s spatial patterns and changing trends within the geographical boundary of Ethiopia, (2) Kriging Interpolation maps are created and cross-validation is executed to evaluate the concordance between predictions and reality, (3) analyzing the spatio-temporal variability of BNB precipitation is achieved through using empirical orthogonal functions analysis, (4) investigating the BNB precipitation- large-scale atmospheric teleconnections nexus is executed through estimating dynamic harmonic regression model, (5) specification and prediction of BNB precipitation from tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) using canonical correlation analysis, and (6) finally, the predictive skill of the specification and prediction of BNB precipitation models are checked with cross-validation