الفهرس 
Probabilistic Models for Construction Projects’ Durations in the Middle East
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Abstract
The success of construction projects is confronted by several drastic risks. Also, the accurate estimation of activities durations constitutes a major critical concern in the time scheduling process. This study presents a comprehensive analysis of activities duration to evaluate the actual behaviour of activities exposed to different types of risk and uncertainty and to derive regression models predicting activities{u2019} durations for different cases. The results show that the best PDF to represent construction activities durations is the lognormal distribution. Besides, the ratio of the highest, actual activity duration to the corresponding mean duration is always more than 4 for projects in the Middle East, which differs from that suggested in previous studies (1.25)